Greece: A Snapshot

By the end of 2012, Grexit was a term firmly entrenched in the industry jargon. It meant Greece's exit from the Eurozone. All thanks to the billion dollar bailout packages extended to Greece by its Eurozone partners, this was averted. The worst case scenario being imagined in the above case was that of the collapse of Eurozone. Here's an analysis of the Greek economy.

GDP

As per 2012 data, Greece is a 250 billion dollar economy.  The highest ever GDP for Greece was recorded in 2008 at 343 billion dollars. In nominal terms, the exports in 2012 were about 35 billion dollars in value. Even though the exports have only seen an increasing trend over the years, the gap between exports and imports has widened substantially with imports being the highest in 2009 at $92 billion. In this year, the exports accounted for only about 20 billion dollars. The corresponding number for total imports in 2012 was 67 billion dollars.

Trade-dependence

It is the value of a country's total imports and exports as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product. It is seen as a measure of an economy's openness in terms of free trade. Trade-dependence from 1980 to 2012 has hovered in the 25 to 35 percentage range. Trade dependence increased to 35 percent in 2009 as imports increased considerably to 92 billion dollars. Sum of imports and exports was about 112 billion dollars, for a GDP of $321 billion. In 2012, the trade dependence was 41 percent as GDP decreased substantially to 249 billion dollars and the sum total of exports and imports did not decrease much, remaining at $102 billion. As the base contracted, the trade dependence number jumped to 41 percent.

What went wrong with the Greek economy?

Greece had been running huge fiscal deficits for long. After the sub-prime crisis in US and the resulting repercussions that were felt around the world, Greece found it difficult to raise money to finance its spending. In fact, investors feared that Greece would default on its debt payments. Before this crisis set in, Greece's economy was growing at more than 4 percent. The Government's expenses had increased by more than 80 percent but the tax revenues had not kept pace, registering an increase of a little over 40 percent. A major chunk of this spending was being done on arms, salaries and pension. Therefore, nothing productive was expected to come out of the money that was being spent. To make matters worse, it emerged later that Greece was under-reporting the information on its fiscal deficit year after year and the number had even gone beyond 10 percent when it was reported to be near 6 percent. Greece was second only to US in its defence spending among all the NATO members. With the ever ballooning Government expenses and little to look forward to in terms of returns from the expenditure, lenders were finding it difficult to keep faith in the Greek economy. As recession hit the world in late 2008, there was little to be expected in terms of better GDP growth. GDP in nominal terms has only seen a downward trend since 2008.

Coming back to Greece's high debt/GDP ratio, it was hovering near 100 percent from 1991 to the early 2000s. Once the financial crisis set in, it was difficult for Greece to finance its spending. The situation deteriorated quickly in the last quarter of 2009. As investors feared a default, Greek debt was relegated to junk status. Other members of Eurozone extended to Greece a bailout package of 110 billion Euros in April 2010. This was followed by another bailout package in 2012 of about 130 billion Euros. These came with some conditions which included austerity measures on the part of the Government and privatization of certain assets in order to finance Govt. spending. It would only be after 2015 or perhaps even 2017 that Greece will be able to get private lenders to lend to it, given that at the time of the second bailout package private lenders had to agree to lower interest rates and a reduction in face value of assets by more than 50 percent.

Industrial analysis

Fuel and mining exports increased, from 4.4 billion dollars in 2010 to 16 billion dollar in 2012. Decrease in wage rates post 2009 may have had a role in this but this industry being capital intensive, investments over the years before the recession set in, have perhaps played a bigger role. Mineral fuels and lubricants are the chief exports in the fuels segment. Greece has huge deposits of Limestone, Gypsum, slate and Alumina. The subject of Gold mining has remained a bit controversial in the region.

Agricultural products continue to be a significant part of the country’s exports. Its share in exports has come down from almost a third in 1980 to 20 percent in 2012. A large decline in the share of agricultural products in exports was seen in the 2010-2012 period, coming down from 27.4 percent in 2010 to 19.4 percent in 2012. This was a reversal of the trend seen in fuel and mining products' exports.

Greece is a part of the European Union. Its major trade partners are European nations. Since 1995, Germany and Italy have been the leading importers of its products. In 1995, 21% of its exports went to Germany and 14 percent to Italy. By 2000, the share of Italy and Germany was 12 percent each. In 2010, it was Italy at 11% and Germany at 10%. Other trade partners of Greece are Cyprus, Turkey, Albania, Romania and United States. Cyprus gets 20 percent of its imports from Greece. The value of imports was 280 million in 2000; 1 billion dollars in 2005, the corresponding values for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 were 1.4, 1.7, 1.5 and 1.4 billion dollars respectively. There was a reduction in exports to Germany, from 2.6 to 2.3 billion dollars in the years 2008 and 2010 respectively.

The pharmaceutical industry in Greece presents an extremely interesting case. In order to push for austerity while ensuring that its citizens get access to medicines, Greece implemented a 25 percent reduction in prices of many medicines. Although, this led to shortage of medicines as some pharma companies preferred not to supply to the country, there were other effects as well. More than 25 percent of the medicinal supplies to the country were being exported to Germany. Greece, then had to resort to an export ban on medicines. If this fact is not taken into account, it may seem that Greece was a major exporter of medicines.