Friday, 4 April 2014

How much did a communist past affect the GDP growth rate among EU member countries in 2009?

I studied the impact of the following factors on the real GDP growth rate in EU member countries in 2009, which incidentally was negative then, depicting a period of recession:
  • Geographical location: Location in Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern or Western Europe.
  • Whether the country joined the European Community / Union after 1980: The formation of the European Bloc has continued since 1950's from being a community with a few member countries to the 27 member EU that it is now
  • The presence of a communist regime in the past
  • The country in question being landlocked

Here is a summary of the results:
  • The average real GDP growth rate for a country that is landlocked, joined European Union after 1980 and was formerly governed by a communist regime is -11.97.
  • The countries that have not had a communist regime in the past, will have, on average, a lower value of negative real GDP growth rate, by 5.56 percent.
  • A country that is not landlocked will have a lower value of negative GDP growth rate, by 5.4 percent.
  • An EU member in the central region will have lower recession value by 6.18 percent.
  • An EU member in the Northern region is observed to have had, on average, a higher value of recession by -7.2 percent.


    The actual real GDP growth numbers are as mentioned below:

    EU Member Real GDP growth rate in 2009
    Austria -3.8
    Belgium -2.8
    Bulgaria -5.5
    Croatia -6.9
    Cyprus -1.9
    Czech Republic -4.5
    Denmark -5.7
    Estonia -14.1
    Finland -8.5
    France -3.1
    Germany -5.1
    Greece -3.1
    Hungary -6.8
    Ireland -6.4
    Italy -5.5
    Latvia -17.7
    Lithuania -14.8
    Luxembourg -5.6
    Malta -2.8
    Netherlands -3.7
    Poland 1.6
    Portugal -2.9
    Romania -6.6
    Slovakia -4.9
    Slovenia -7.9
    Spain -3.8
    Sweden -5
    United Kingdom -5.2

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