Showing posts with label Quantitative Easing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quantitative Easing. Show all posts

Saturday, 28 December 2013

A lowdown on Quantitative Easing

The term “Quantitative Easing” was first used in Japan in March, 2001 to fight deflation - reduction in price levels of services and goods - which has been a persistent feature of the Japanese economy for more than a decade now. QE has also been used by central banks in US, UK and the Euro zone, with multiple rounds of quantitative easing in USA being termed as QE1, QE2 and QE3.

Quantitative Easing comes into play in a scenario underscored by low interest rates, almost nearing zero, and lack of demand or a poor state of the economy in general. Deflation is also considered an important factor in such a situation. In an economy characterised by a general slowdown and low interest rates, further lowering of interest rates as a monetary policy tool to spur growth is not a possibility. Banks are unwilling to lend at low rates to the corporate sector and individuals when the GDP growth is sluggish or the economy is in a recessionary phase. Short-term bond buying by the government fails to
serve the purpose of bringing the economy back on track. The central bank then buys bonds and incurs long term debt. The Central bank thus injects liquidity into the system. The greater money supply is expected to boost demand because people and businesses get access to cheap credit and this eventually leads to growth in the economy.

In the post subprime crisis era, even though UK and EU have also used QE as a monetary policy tool, the maximum impact has been felt by Quantitative Easing undertaken by USA in multiple stages. This has increased its debt from $700-$800 billion to nearly $2 trillion. In the latest round of QE, termed QE3 or QE Infinity, undertaken from September 2012, the initial mandate was to purchase $40 billion of mortgage backed securities per month. This was hiked to $85 billion in December, 2012. In June 2013, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, hinted that USA was well on its path of achieving the set targets through QE and thus the monthly bond buying activity would see some tapering in the near term.

The speculation continues as US' jobs data improves.







Thursday, 26 December 2013

bitcoin: A potential fiat currency?



Quantitative Easing has been a much talked about subject throughout the year 2013, with "Will happen/ Won't happen" analysis coming in from all quarters as and when the US jobs data or the inflation numbers suggested that the Fed is indeed achieving its set targets and the situation is ripe for tapering. The central banks around the world are assessing the likely impact of QE tapering on their own currencies but one currency that is making waves around the world and is likely to remain untouched by what Ben Bernanke does now or Janet Yellen does in the future is the bitcoin.


News about the future prospects of the currency has been a bit of a mixed bag with the US online retailer Overstock.com giving it an emphatic nod of approval with an announcement that it would start accepting the currency by as early as the end of 2014 and People's Bank of China (PBoC) forbidding financial and payment institutions from carrying out bitcoin related business. This happened even as the bitcoin was scaling new heights in terms of its value, touching $1200 but the news did act as a dampener and the virtual currency was soon trading at $800 for a bitcoin. General citizens in China are still free to exchange the virtual currency among themselves, not against the local currency though.

Reserve Bank of India has followed suit albeit with a warning in place of a downright ban. The warning pertains to potential risks that dealing with the currency hold in terms of money laundering and cyber security. Players in the bitcoin domain in India now await directives from the RBI in terms of a clear policy in order to carry out the buy sell activities while avoiding being on the wrong side of the law. Entities such as INRBTC.com and buysellbitco.in have thus suspended their operations for now.

Discounting the fact that bitcoin finds itself entangled in the web of regulation, it faces no serious threat to its existence. The general consensus among analysts is that these moves by central banks may delay the use of bitcoin as a full-fledged currency but this currency is here to stay.